Culper Research Short NVIDIA: The China Problem — Megaspeed, Alibaba, and a $2.9 Billion 'Refundable Deposit'
On May 13, 2026, Culper Research published a short report on NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) — the single largest company on earth by market capitalization at the time of publication. The firm states it is not betting against AI, but is short NVIDIA for one reason: what it calls the company's 'significant China problem.'
Epistemic note. Culper Research is a short seller that discloses a financial interest in the decline of NVIDIA stock. Its allegations — including the characterization of NVIDIA's China revenue disclosures, the Megaspeed/Alibaba financing claims, and the diversion allegations — are the opinions of a third party with a disclosed short position. None of this has been independently verified by The Forensic Ledger, adjudicated by a regulator or court, or admitted by NVIDIA.
'China went to zero' — but Culper says it didn't
Culper states that NVIDIA claims its business in China went to 'zero' after April 2025 U.S. trade restrictions. The report alleges that, in reality, over 20% of NVIDIA's FY 2026 compute revenues remained driven by China — supported, it says, both by illegal GPU diversion and by Southeast Asian intermediaries.
Megaspeed: the largest Southeast Asian chip buyer, under investigation
The report centers on Megaspeed, described as NVIDIA's single largest Southeast Asian chip buyer and a company currently under investigation by both U.S. Commerce and Singapore authorities. Culper states that NVIDIA has repeatedly vouched for Megaspeed as 'wholly owned and operated by a company based and headquartered outside China, with no China shareholders,' and has claimed it has 'repeatedly tested and sampled data centers around the world and found no diversion.' The report alleges that documents it uncovered suggest Megaspeed has been secretly financed by Alibaba via a series of apparent shell companies. Culper notes that NVIDIA's 'lawyered phrasing' — that Megaspeed holds no Chinese equity — does not, it argues, preclude Chinese financing.
A balance sheet that exploded from $33 million to $3.0 billion
Culper states that Megaspeed's financial statements reveal that from year-end 2023 to year-end 2024, its balance sheet exploded from just $33 million to $3.0 billion in total liabilities and equity, driven almost entirely by $2.9 billion in 'refundable deposits received' from an unnamed source. The report states that Megaspeed's financials also show $2.9 billion in 'amounts due from subsidiaries' — money it says Megaspeed forwarded to operating subsidiaries such as Malaysia-based Speedmatrix.
The Apex/Alibaba collateral pledge
The report cites Malaysian filings it says reveal that in June 2024 — two months before commencing operations — Speedmatrix filed a charge pledging its entire business as collateral to Apex Enterprise Solutions (Singapore). Culper states that Singapore filings disclose Apex's corporate parent is Alibaba, and its sole stated purpose is 'providing procurement activities.' As of March 31, 2025, the report says Apex reported over $4.1 billion in prepayments against $4.2 billion in loans payable to Alibaba.
Aivres Systems: the rebranded entity-list supplier
Culper cites trade records it says reveal that from December 2024 through January 2026, Speedmatrix imported $4.6 billion in product, of which $4.0 billion originated from Aivres Systems Inc., described as an NVIDIA Elite OEM compute partner that assembles high-end NVIDIA-equipped servers. The report states that Aivres Systems was formerly known as Inspur Systems Inc., but rebranded after its parent, China-based Inspur Group, was placed on the U.S. entity list. Culper states that Aivres remains one-third owned by the Chinese state — just under 50% restriction thresholds — and has also supplied servers via Indosat to Shanghai's INF Tech, whose founder the report describes as a former Alibaba VP. The report also cites a March 2026 Wall Street Journal report that Aivres would supply $2.5 billion in Blackwell chips to a Malaysian operator who would lease the servers to ByteDance. Taken together, Culper argues, Aivres' business remains, in effect, a China-dedicated supply channel.
The tenant that was dropped
The report states that just weeks before publication, Bain's Bridge Data Centres (BDC) reportedly dropped Megaspeed as a tenant. BDC declined to cite a reason, the report says, but a source Culper spoke with suggested BDC found that Megaspeed had been caught using the data center as 'a place for Megaspeed to install their dummy servers' and 'divert the hardware.'
Jensen Huang's proximity to Megaspeed
Culper states that NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang has not only vouched for Megaspeed but, in the report's characterization, 'walked alongside Megaspeed at every step,' while maintaining what it calls an 'uncomfortably close relationship' with Megaspeed's Alice Huang, a Chinese national. The report states Huang was first spotted partying with Alice Huang in June 2024 — the same month the Apex/Alibaba pledge was filed — dined with her in Taiwan in May 2025 (weeks after news of U.S. trade restrictions), and, per a current Megaspeed employee cited by Culper, visits Megaspeed-linked data centers regularly.
What would falsify this thesis
Falsification would look like: NVIDIA disclosing that China-driven revenue is genuinely near zero and that the Southeast Asian intermediaries named in the report operate independently of Chinese financing; Megaspeed disclosing the source of its $2.9 billion in 'refundable deposits' and demonstrating it is not Alibaba or an Alibaba affiliate; Apex Enterprise Solutions and Speedmatrix demonstrating their collateral and procurement relationships are independent of Alibaba; Aivres Systems demonstrating its supply chain does not function as a China-dedicated channel; and U.S. Commerce or Singapore authorities closing their investigations without findings of diversion. Corroborating developments would include formal enforcement action by U.S. Commerce, Singapore, or the DOJ; a restatement or clarification of NVIDIA's China revenue disclosures; Megaspeed losing additional data-center tenants over diversion concerns; or further documentary evidence linking Megaspeed's financing to Alibaba.
Culper Research's disclosed position
Culper Research disclosed that it, along with its members, partners, affiliates, employees, consultants, clients, and/or investors, has a position in NVIDIA securities, that it is likely to transact in the securities immediately following publication, and that it may be long, short, or neutral at any time thereafter regardless of its initial recommendation.
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⚖️ Editorial Disclaimer
This article summarizes with citation a research report already published by Culper Research. The Forensic Ledger is an independent newsroom and archive; it is not the author of the underlying allegations and does not adopt them as established fact. All figures and characterizations attributed to the report — including the characterization of NVIDIA's China revenue disclosures, the Megaspeed/Alibaba financing claims, the Aivres Systems supply-chain allegations, and the diversion allegations — are the opinions of a third party (Culper Research) that discloses a financial interest in the decline of the covered security. These claims have not been independently verified by The Forensic Ledger, have not been adjudicated by any court or regulator, and may be denied or disputed by NVIDIA. This article is published for informational and journalistic purposes only, is not investment advice, and is not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
Original reporting by Culper Research. This article is desk analysis prepared by The Forensic Ledger from publicly available sources, summarized with citation to the original.
Not investment advice. This is original reporting and analysis prepared by The Forensic Ledger from publicly available data. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Always consult the original source and a licensed professional. See our full disclaimer and source-citation policy.
