Kerrisdale Capital: Everspin Is a Casino-Gaming Memory Supplier, Not an AI Winner
In May 2026, Kerrisdale Capital Management published a short report on Everspin Technologies (NASDAQ: MRAM), arguing the ~$900 million niche memory chipmaker's stock had soared roughly 300% in a matter of weeks as speculative investors "who seemingly can't tell the difference between MRAM, DRAM, or a Dodge Ram" piled into anything associated with "memory" and AI — even though Everspin is not a meaningful beneficiary of the hyperscale AI infrastructure buildout. Kerrisdale's core contention: Everspin's largest end market is casino gaming and slot machines, not hyperscalers and AI servers, and the company trades at levels completely disconnected from years of stagnant financial performance.
Epistemic note: Everspin's SEC filings, investor presentations, and the existence of its defense subcontractor agreement are public record. Kerrisdale's characterization of the stock as a mispriced AI mania play, its valuation critique, and its framing of insider sales are the opinions and allegations of a short seller with a disclosed financial interest — they have not been independently verified by The Forensic Ledger, have not been adjudicated by any court or regulator, and may be disputed by Everspin.
The technology and why Kerrisdale says it isn't an AI play
Everspin develops Magnetoresistive Random Access Memory (MRAM), a persistent non-volatile memory technology designed for applications where durability, low power consumption, and data retention under extreme conditions matter more than raw speed, density, or throughput. In practice, Kerrisdale says, that means industrial applications such as railway signaling systems, aircraft black boxes, and automotive electronics — mature, fragmented end markets with nothing to do with the AI-driven explosion in semiconductor capital spending. Unlike suppliers of high-bandwidth DRAM and HBM benefiting from step-function demand increases, MRAM largely participates in slow-moving replacement cycles, typically substituting for legacy memory in specialized applications.
Kerrisdale emphasizes that MRAM is "hardly cutting edge" — commercially available for two decades — and that while DRAM manufacturing is an optimized high-speed assembly line, MRAM adds a precision magnetic-engineering process on top of semiconductor production, making it more complicated and expensive to scale. The firm traces Everspin's origins to Freescale Semiconductor and its 2008 spinout, noting it operates as a largely fabless designer relying on third-party foundries and a limited in-house back-end facility.
The revenue mix Kerrisdale flags
The report cites Everspin's 2025 revenue mix: Casino Gaming and Enterprise each contributed roughly ~30% of revenue, while Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellite represented only ~10%. Over nearly two decades, the company has shipped more than 200 million units to over 2,000 customers — which Kerrisdale frames as broad adoption across a highly fragmented base rather than concentration in scaled AI platforms. Its main customers, the firm says, are a long tail of industrial, aerospace, healthcare, and gaming customers, not hyperscalers.
Stagnant financials and the valuation disconnect
Kerrisdale argues Everspin reflects the profile of a semiconductor supplier struggling to produce sustained growth or operating leverage:
- Revenue has remained largely flat in the ~$55–65 million range over the past five years, with no clear upward trajectory despite ongoing investment in new products and repeated expectations of broader product traction.
- Gross margins, which once approached ~60%, have trended closer to ~50% in recent periods, while operating profitability has fluctuated around breakeven.
- 1Q26 revenue of $14.9 million was up 13.2% year-over-year but, Kerrisdale notes, essentially flat relative to 1Q performance in 2024, 2023, and 2022 — with operating income, EBITDA, and EPS similarly little changed from three years ago.
Against that backdrop, Kerrisdale says Everspin at the report's ~$34 share price traded at roughly 10x 2027E sales, 38x 2027E EBITDA, and 9x its own 2029 revenue target — multiples the firm characterizes as those of "a memory stock [investors] will ultimately wish they could forget." Kerrisdale's summary table put the company at an ~$870 million market capitalization and ~$832 million enterprise value, with 2027E EV/Revenue of 10.1x and EV/EBITDA of 37.6x.
The defense contract and insider sales
Kerrisdale acknowledges a near-term tailwind: a newly announced $40 million aggregate-value subcontractor agreement tied to U.S. defense programs, expected to be recognized over 30 months, involving development of domestic Toggle-MRAM manufacturing capability for military and aerospace applications — milestone-based engineering services, process qualification, and transfer of manufacturing know-how and IP, which Everspin described as effectively a "recipe compendium." But the firm argues this validates MRAM's niche positioning rather than an AI thesis, and notes actual revenue recognition will likely be lumpy.
Kerrisdale also flags that, with shares trading at levels it considers disconnected from reality, Everspin's CEO, CFO, and two directors have recently sold stock into the frenzy — a data point the firm presents as insiders capitalizing on the speculative run-up.
What would falsify this thesis
Falsification would look like: Everspin demonstrating material, sustained revenue growth and operating leverage beyond the defense contract's lumpy contribution; evidence of meaningful design wins with hyperscalers or AI infrastructure customers that shift the revenue mix away from casino gaming and industrial niches; or gross margins recovering toward ~60% with operating profitability moving durably above breakeven. Any company response should be weighed alongside this report.
Kerrisdale's disclosed position
Kerrisdale Capital stated it is short shares of Everspin Technologies and stands to realize monetary gains if the price declines.
Sources
⚖️ Editorial Disclaimer
This article is based on, and summarizes with citation, a research report already published by Kerrisdale Capital Management on its own website (Kerrisdale-Everspin.pdf). The Forensic Ledger is an independent newsroom and structured archive; it is not the author of the underlying allegations and does not adopt them as established fact.
All claims, figures, and characterizations attributed to the report — including the characterization of Everspin as a casino-gaming and industrial memory supplier rather than an AI beneficiary, the 300% stock-run-up framing, the valuation multiples (10x '27E sales, 38x '27E EBITDA, 9x 2029 revenue target), the ~$55–65 million revenue-range stagnation, the gross-margin and operating-profitability observations, the 1Q26 flat-revenue comparison, the revenue-mix percentages, the $40 million defense subcontractor description, and the characterization of insider sales — are allegations and opinions of a third party (Kerrisdale Capital) that discloses a financial interest in the decline of the covered securities. They have not been independently verified by The Forensic Ledger, have not been adjudicated by any court or regulator, and may be denied, disputed, or refuted by Everspin Technologies, Inc. or the individuals named in the report.
This article is published for informational and journalistic purposes only — to report on the existence and contents of a publicly available research document. It is not investment advice, not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security, and not an endorsement of the report's conclusions. Nothing herein should be construed as a statement of fact about Everspin's financial condition, end markets, or the merits of its technology. Readers should consult the original source, any company response, and their own due diligence before drawing conclusions.
To the fullest extent permitted by law, The Forensic Ledger disclaims all liability arising from reliance on this summary. Any reproduction of the report's substance is attributed to Kerrisdale Capital; readers are directed to the original publication for the authoritative text.
Original reporting by Kerrisdale Capital. This article is desk analysis prepared by The Forensic Ledger from publicly available sources, summarized with citation to the original.
Not investment advice. This is original reporting and analysis prepared by The Forensic Ledger from publicly available data. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Always consult the original source and a licensed professional. See our full disclaimer and source-citation policy.
